Strongman politics returning to Southeast Asia

History is repeating in Southeast Asia. Filipinos and now Indonesians have elected leaders with links to their countries dark pasts, raising questions about whether strongman politics is back in the region and whether it is here to stay. Its return could risk hard-won progress on democracy and human rights.

Subianto returns in Indonesia

When Indonesians went to the polls this month, Prabowo Subianto was the overwhelming victor, winning in the first round with 58% of the vote. While the General Elections Commission has until March 20 to announce the final tally, it is widely recognized that Subianto will become the next Indonesian president.

The victory is third time lucky for Subianto, 72, having lost to Joko Widodo in 2014 and 2019. Subianto told supporters the win was “the victory of all Indonesians.”

The difference from outgoing President Widodo could not be starker. While Widodo was seen as an outsider to Indonesian politics, Subianto is firmly part of the old guard. He is a former lieutenant-general and special-forces commander and a close ally of the late president Suharto, even marrying his daughter.

Subianto modeled himself on his former patron in his 2014 and 2019 election campaigns, building a strongman image based on his military service. But it is his military background that has caused controversy.

Subianto has been accused of serious human-rights abuses, including atrocities in East Timor and Papua and the abduction and disappearance of democracy activists in 1997. He was controversially dismissed from the military after storming the presidential palace to threaten Suharto’s successor, B J Habibie, in 1998.

Subianto sought to distance himself from his strongman persona in the lead-up to this election to