South Korea suspends peace pact with North over trash-filled balloons, raising risk of military clashes

South Korea’s decision to effectively scrap a 2018 tension-reduction pact in response to recent provocations by Pyongyang has raised the risk of armed clashes by allowing for the resumption of military activities near its border with the North, analysts have warned.

“The main purpose of the [2018 agreement] is to prohibit military activities that can be considered hostile by the other side in the buffer zone along the land and sea borders. Scrapping this agreement allows the resumption of military drills near the border immediately,” Professor Yang Moo-jin at the University of North Korean Studies told This Week in Asia.

South Korea’s defence ministry on Tuesday said the country would resume all military activities near the land and sea border.

“All responsibility for causing this situation lies with the North Korean regime and if the North attempts to stage additional provocation, our military will sternly retaliate,” the ministry said in a statement.

The 2018 agreement, signed during a brief period of détente, had already been undermined by both sides amid mounting tensions over the past two years.

With the 2018 pact scrapped, both sides will now be able to conduct artillery firing exercises within 5km of the border and resume field manoeuvres at the regimental level or higher. At sea, they can fire artillery and conduct maritime manoeuvres in border waters, despite past clashes in the disputed sea border.

“The scrapping of the 2018 agreement lets military tensions escalate further as both sides have publicly vowed to take stern measures against each other’s presumed hostile activities,” Yang said.

North Korea typically sent around 1,000 leaflet-carrying balloons to the South annually, but it claimed to have launched 3,500