South China Sea clash raises stakes even higher as scepticism surrounds Manilla talks

The discussions centred on managing the precarious situation at the Second Thomas Shoal, with both sides pledging to sustain dialogue and consultation to control disputes and differences. Yet, scepticism looms amid the momentum.

Analysts said that it remains to be seen whether the resilience of the bilateral consultative mechanism and the trust between Manila and Beijing – even if eroding – can indeed cool the waters in one of Asia’s most disputed areas.

With tensions simmering and the dialogue channel seemingly constricting, the stakes are higher than ever.

05:28

Should China be concerned about the latest Japan-Philippines security pact?

Vessels from Beijing and Manila routinely engaged in naval face-offs, sometimes causing damage to the Philippine ships and injuring its crew.

Sitting at the centre of the confrontations is a crumbling World War Two-era Philippine navy ship, BRP Sierra Madre, which was deliberately grounded on the Second Thomas Shoal in 1999 to advance Manila’s claim in the hotly contested water.

Since then, Manila has deployed a handful of troops on the ship, which largely depends on supplies sent from coastal towns.

02:34

Chinese and Philippine ships clash in first incident under Beijing’s new coast guard law

But Manila is said to be quietly fortifying the shipwreck to extend its life, constituting a major concern to Beijing.

Beijing refused to recognise the ruling, saying the arbitration was null and void.

In addition to the Second Thomas Shoal, the Chinese coastguard and the Philippine vessels also clashed around Scarborough Shoal in the Spratly Islands, which Beijing seized control of in 2012 after a tense stand-off with Manila and constantly deployed coastguard forces and fishing militia to patrol the waters.

C