Sleepwalking toward WWIII in the South China Sea

China’s announcement of its intention to enforce a law that would arrest foreign nationals venturing into waters it claims in the South China Sea (SCS) may be the trigger for a direct military confrontation with the United States. The regulation, known as the Administrative Law Enforcement Procedures for Coast Guard Agencies, will come into force on June 15, 2024.

Violent incidents between US ally, the Philippines, and China, have been ratcheting up in recent months. Dramatic film footage by Britain’s Sky News showed several large Chinese Coast Guard vessels pounding a smaller Philippine Coast Guard ship with powerful water cannons in disputed waters surrounding the Scarborough Shoal.

Shortly before, US President Joe Biden met with Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr and Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida in Washington DC to discuss regional security. Biden affirmed “iron-clad” support for the Philippines under the auspices of their mutual defense treaty, including protection of coast guard vessels that come under armed attack in the South China Sea.

Since the treaty requires that an “armed” attack be reported to the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) in the first instance, China’s use of water cannons, even though potentially lethal, has to date not been construed as such. Certainly, the Philippines did not submit a report of the Sky News-filmed incident to the UNSC.

Nonetheless, at the Shangri-la Security Dialogue in Singapore held at the end of May, Marcos stated “If a Filipino citizen was killed by a willful act, that is very close to what we define as an act of war. Is that a red line? Almost certainly.”

This red line will become even redder from June 15 as any arrests made under China’s enforcement of