Regime change is coming – to Kiev

Washington has fondly hoped that it could bring about regime change in Russia. Now it seems even more likely that there will be regime change, but not in Russia – in Kiev.

The catalyst for regime change in Kiev is the bloody and now ended battle over Avdiivka.

Avdiivka is very close to Donetsk city, the capital area of the Donbas region. Donetsk is about halfway between Mariupol on the Sea of Azov and Luhansk in the north. Both Donetsk and Luhansk are regions (oblasts) in eastern Ukraine with mostly Russian-speaking populations. Both Donetsk and Luhansk, along with Kherson and Zaporizhzhia, were annexed by the Russians in September 2022.

The recent battle over Avdiivka began four months ago, and from January the Russians began wearing down the Ukrainian defenders of the city. The Russian operation included attacks from the north, some of which focused on a huge coke-making plant; and from the South in multiple thrusts on the city’s flanks.

By the end of the first week of February, the Russian armed forces had cut the city in two and were steadily advancing while pounding the city with artillery and FAB bombs. These are high explosive bombs of different sizes (FAB-500, FAB-1500 – the number is the bomb size in kilograms).

Avdiivka was highly fortified and a difficult target for the Russian army. The Russians focused on flank attacks that eventually squeezed off resupply of weapons and food and made rotation of forces difficult.By the last week of the battle the roads in and out of the city were under Russian fire control.

President Volodymyr Zelensky staked his reputation on Avdiivka and wanted it held at all costs. He fired his overall commander Valery Zaluzhny, who saw Avdiivka as a lost cause. Zaluzhny wanted to pull