Philippines ‘will be a target’ in event of nuclear war between China and US, analysts warn

“Regardless of [whether it’s an] immediate or direct threat, we are going to be affected,” warned Ramon Beleno III, head of the political science and history department at Ateneo De Davao University in the Philippines. “Even if they just hit Taiwan, because of our proximity … we will be a target.”

Manila allowing the US access to its military camps and to deploy a new missile system in the country were aggravating factors, Beleno said.

His dire assessment underscores the precarious position the Philippines now finds itself in. While Washington’s security guarantees have long offered a deterrent against potential aggressors, they have also placed the archipelago squarely in the cross hairs of a superpower showdown with apocalyptic stakes.

Beleno urged Manila to “refrain from taking sides” in this looming clash of nuclear titans. “If there will be a side for us to pick, it will be the side of peace,” he said. “If you use nuclear weapons, it will not just hit your enemy, it will destroy all of us.”

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In the event of a nuclear showdown, China is likely to unleash a barrage of tactical strikes against key military targets across the Philippines such as facilities, runways, and shipyards, said Joshua Espeña, a resident fellow and vice-president of the International Development and Security Cooperation think tank.

“The People’s Liberation Army would likely place decoys on the signals received in the alliance’s intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance coverage,” Espeña told This Week in Asia. “So, it is apt for Manila to strengthen ISR, electronic warfare capabilities, air defence systems with enough munitions.”

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