Philippines’ new playbook is a threat to South China Sea peace

Why is Manila adopting these two approaches and how have they been put into practice? And how might Beijing respond? It is also important to consider the implications of the new developments for peace and stability in the South China Sea. What will all this ultimately lead to?

The reason behind Manila’s new approaches is the significant disparity in maritime law enforcement and naval power between the Philippines and China. Manila lacks the capability to get Beijing to withdraw from disputed areas like Scarborough Shoal and Second Thomas Shoal.

To ensure the constant presence of its maritime law enforcement in the waters surrounding Scarborough Shoal however, providing “humanitarian supplies” to Filipino fishermen operating in the area can be used as a plausible pretext.

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Chinese floating barrier blocks entrance to Philippine ships at South China Sea flashpoint

But the ruling does not address the issue of whether the Philippine coastguard or Bureau of Fisheries and Aquatic Resources has the authority to patrol or enforce laws in the waters of the shoal. The latter involves the issue of territorial sovereignty over Scarborough Shoal, which is outside the scope of an arbitral tribunal under the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea.

Last June, the Philippines unveiled the LAYAG WPS project (Livelihood Activities to Enhance Fisheries Yield and Economic Gains from the West Philippine Sea) to provide critical resources including equipment, fuel and livelihood support to Filipino fishermen in disputed areas such as Scarborough Shoal. It also aims to consolidate the Philippines’ presence and claims in the disputed region.

As part of this, Manila earmarked 2.5 billion pesos (US$44.5 million) for the acquisition of floating assets to