Philippines braces for Taiwan fallout as ‘bolder’ Japan challenges Beijing

The Philippines, which has some 200,000 workers in Taiwan, faces its own challenges if conflict erupts. Geopolitical analyst Matteo Piasentini cautioned that “the concern may be real” as Beijing had already warned Manila not to “play with fire” when it comes to the Taiwan issue “if it cares about those workers”.

“The Indo-Pacific is a construct that conceptualises the Asia-Pacific in a more security-oriented manner,” Piasentini, a lecturer at the University of the Philippines’ political science department, told This Week in Asia. “China considers the Indo-Pacific a construct aimed at containing its rise, and tries to challenge that.”

While Manila is unlikely to be directly drawn into a China-Japan conflict, “the Philippines and Japan are linked to the US by bilateral alliances”, Piasentini noted, with several other US allies also attempting “to cosy up amid a deteriorating security environment”.

Still, “we can’t infer that this will translate into reciprocal defence commitments in the near future,” he said.

A “bolder Japan” was essential to counter Beijing’s maritime aggression, security analyst Cabalza said, with the Philippines and Taiwan looking to rely on Tokyo as a regional leader.

“The entanglement has led to the optimal state where Japan has to prepare and be ready for any eventuality to deter Chinese rising military power,” said Cabalza, president of the Manila-based International Development and Security Cooperation think tank.

The Philippines, Taiwan and Japanese archipelago form what is known in defence circles as the “first island chain” – a natural barrier restricting Chinese naval forces’ access to the open Pacific.

These are “flashpoints, which are vulnerable to overlapping skirmishes if China antagonises one of