Operation 1027 rapidly changing Myanmar’s security landscape

This article was first published by Pacific Forum and is republished with kind permission. Read the original here.

In the three and a half years since the February 2021 military coup, Myanmar has endured political, social, economic and armed struggles.

The opposition National Unity Government (NUG) declared a defensive war in September 2021, establishing the People’s Defense Forces (PDFs) and aligning with ethnic armed organizations (EAOs) to combat the oppressive Myanmar military junta.

Over the past three years, the combined efforts of PDFs and EAOs have expanded control over rural territories and engaged in guerrilla warfare in urban areas, severely stretching the military regime’s resources.

The anti-regime coalition known as the Three Brotherhood Alliance (3BHA), composed of the ethnic Kokang Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA), the Ta’ang National Liberation Army (TNLA) and the Arakan Army (AA), launched a coordinated offensive military campaign in northern Shan state called Operation 1027—named for its launch date of October 27, 2023.

This operation shifted security dynamics, as in its first three months the well-prepared 3BHA forces, with close ties to China and access to advanced weaponry like high-tech drones, seized heavy weaponry from the junta and control of significant territories, including major towns and economic hubs bordering China.

The Myanmar military has been weakened to an unprecedented degree by the conflict with resistance armed forces, as China’s support for the regime has wavered and its increasing favor for some opposition groups becomes apparent.

Some local debates focus on the 3BHA’s goals, with many observers believing it fights to gain territory and eradicate online scams in