Nord Stream sabotage as a whodunit misses the point

In the two years since saboteurs planted explosives on Nord Stream 1 and 2 – gas pipelines that spanned the Baltic Sea to connect Russia to Germany – the finger of suspicion has fallen on a succession of possible culprits.

Immediately after the September 26, 2022, blast, many Western experts blamed Russia. The theory was that Moscow blew up the pipelines as part of its “hybrid warfare” approach – showing a willingness and capability to attack critical infrastructure – or as a “false flag” operation to smear Ukraine.

Since then, journalists and pundits have suggested a range of culprits, including President Joe Biden and the CIA, Ukraine and Poland.

Swedish and Danish intelligence investigations ended in February 2024 without identifying the saboteurs, doing little to tamp down conspiracy theories.

Then, in August 2024, it was reported in German media that as part of the ongoing German investigation, prosecutors had issued an arrest warrant for a Ukrainian diving instructor living in Poland.

Kyiv has dismissed the claim of official complicity as “absolute nonsense.” Meanwhile, Krzysztof Gawkowski, Poland’s deputy prime minister and the minister of digital affairs, suggested that the German findings were “inspired by Moscow” and intended to cause a rift among NATO countries.

Nonetheless, the German report has helped shift the consensus framing of the incident toward the blast being an international crime against majority-Russian-owned civilian infrastructure.

And this represents a clear win for Russia. Cementing Russia’s narrative, rather than establishing the truth, may have always been the point for Moscow.

While investigators look for the motives, means and opportunity for the sabotage itself, observers of post-Soviet