New Zealand needs to muscle up for the New Cold War

When the previous government released the first-ever national security strategy last year, it forecast stormy geopolitical weather ahead. In the brief few months since then, the sky has darkened further still.

Beyond a slight rapprochement between China and the United States at the end of 2023, arms control remains poor, measures to prevent accidental war limited, and a genuinely rule-based international order patchy at best.

British foreign secretary David Cameron may have been speaking to his own government’s agenda when he said the “lights are absolutely flashing red on the global dashboard.” But the analogy still holds.

Three big issues are now rising to the boil: the war in Ukraine, tension in the South China Sea, and the widening disaster in Israel and Gaza. Each instance of global disorder touches Aotearoa New Zealand and its largely untested coalition government.

Ukraine in the balance

While New Zealand has not joined the fighting, it is not neutral on Ukraine. It has provided weapons, training and other forms of assistance – including joining actions against Russia at the International Court of Justice.

But the prognosis is not good. Russia’s military counterpunch is coming while external support for Ukraine is at risk of fading.

Defense officials in Sweden have warned their country should prepare for the possibility of conflict. A leaked plan from the German government shows it is also preparing for potential widening Russian aggression.

As a partner to NATO, New Zealand needs to consider its response should the tide of war turn against Ukraine – or worse still, spread to other countries.

New Zealand has said it is “deeply concerned” about China’s tactics over the Spratly Islands in the South China Sea. Of