NATO’s nuclear deterrent just got more precise

The F-35A Joint Strike Fighter (JSF) armed with the B61-12 thermonuclear weapon is slated to be the cornerstone of NATO’s next-generation air-based nuclear deterrent, reigniting debate over the logic of US extended deterrence and deploying nuclear weapons in Europe.

This month, multiple media outlets reported that the F-35A JSF has officially been certified to carry the B61-12 thermonuclear bomb, marking a significant development in nuclear deterrence capabilities. This certification signifies the F-35A’s unique ability to penetrate enemy air defenses, making it NATO’s latest dual-capable aircraft for nuclear deterrence in Europe.

The F-35A’s stealth and advanced capabilities are expected to alter Russia’s defensive strategies and predictive modeling of strike success probabilities.

The aircraft’s certification, achieved in October 2023 ahead of the previously scheduled January 2024, underscores intense collaboration among 16 government and industry stakeholders over the past decade.

The F-35A is increasingly becoming Europe’s dominant 5th-generation stealth fighter. European Security & Defense notes in a July 2023 article that the UK, Italy, Netherlands, Denmark, Norway, Belgium, Finland, Poland and Germany have acquired or plan to acquire the aircraft.

Significantly, the F-35A does not require the Block 4 upgrade for B61-12 usage, alleviating concerns amid ongoing delays in the Block 4 and Technology Refresh-3 updates.

The certification process does not imply that all F-35As will actively participate in nuclear missions; only specific squadrons will have the qualifications and infrastructure to undertake such operations.

The deployment of the B61-12 in Europe remains a closely guarded secret, with Belgium, Germany,