Modi sets ambitious India economic goals for probable third term

NEW DELHI - Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, confident of winning a national election starting this month, has set an ambitious target of roughly doubling the economy and exports this decade, according to a government document seen by Reuters.

Modi has highlighted economic growth as one of his biggest achievements in election rallies and has "guaranteed" making the economy the third largest in the world from fifth now if he wins a third term in a row as polls predict.

He has already asked officials to finalise plans by around May to expand the economy to $6.69 trillion (S$9 trillion) in nominal terms by 2030, from around $3.51 trillion currently, according to the October document. Though short on concrete details of how to achieve that, it has been a basis for officials' meetings.

When he took office for a second term five years ago, Modi promised to take the economy to $5 trillion by the current fiscal year, but partly due to Covid-19 related disruptions, meeting that target is virtually impossible now.

For the next six years, Modi's goal is to raise per capita income to $4,418 from around $2,500, the document says, without specifying the spending or reforms needed to achieve that.

Modi's office and the finance ministry did not reply to requests seeking comment.

Independent economist Saugata Bhattacharya said if the real GDP can grow by 6-6.5 per cent, inflation stays around 4.5 per cent and the rupee continues to depreciate against the dollar by 1-1.5 per cent every year, the economy can double in seven years in nominal dollar terms.

"The issue that a vision document should address is the set of structural reforms required to sustain this or a higher real GDP growth rate over a long time, a very difficult feat," he