Local wins by Erdoğan foes could herald sea-change

The dilemma before the March 31 municipal elections was between status quo and change. With hindsight, one can affirm the event has marked an unprecedented shift in recent Turkish politics. This is not just because the results have led to administrative switches in 29 provinces nationwide but also because this marks a substantial alteration in local power dynamics.

For the first time in over two decades, the main opposition party, the Republican People’s Party (CHP), surpassed Erdoğan’s conservative Justice and Development Party (AKP) on a national scale, capturing 37.77% of the vote. What made its victory historic is the extension of its influence beyond its traditional urban strongholds to areas long considered bastions of the ruling AKP.

Erdoğan’s party clings to strongholds

Despite losing several provinces in the region, Erdoğan’s party remained strong in its historical strongholds in central Anatolia and still achieved greater success in southeast regions affected by the double earthquake in February 2023, notably in Kahramanmaras and Gaziantep.

However, its loss of votes is linked not only to the CHP’s strategy but also to the achievements of those political forces that supported Erdoğan in last year’s presidential elections. Indeed, the March 31 results highlight a significant shift within the right-conservative area, too.

The successes of the more extremist factions, represented by the Islamist Yeniden Refah Partisi (YRP) and the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP), show discontent on both sides of Erdoğan’s electorate. In this election, those who believe the AKP has adopted too lenient a stance on religion and nationalism have moved toward the YRP and MHP.

Conversely, those who chose not to renew their support for