'Liquid gold': An olive oil shortage is fueling record prices and food insecurity fears

A shortage of olive oil, sometimes referred to as "liquid gold," has driven prices to record highs, fueled a crime surge and pushed the industry into crisis mode.

The skyrocketing price of the liquid fat, a superfood staple of the Mediterranean diet, has stunned consumers and industry veterans alike in recent months.

Kyle Holland, an analyst at market research group Mintec, said climate-fueled extreme weather had "significantly impacted" olive oil production in southern Europe in recent years, particularly in Mediterranean countries such as Spain, Italy and Greece.

Spain, which supplies more than 40% of the world's production according to the Centre for the Promotion of Imports, might typically be expected to produce somewhere between 1.3 million to 1.5 million metric tons of olive oil each harvest, Holland said.

However, official figures showed Spain only cultivated around 666,000 metric tons for the 2022/2023 campaign. Market players surveyed by Mintec expect a production range of 830,000 to 850,000 metric tons for Spain's 2023/2024 season, an increase of roughly 40,000 metric tons from previous estimates.

Olive oil prices in Spain's Andalusia stood at 7.8 euros ($8.4) per kilogram as of April 19, according to Mintec's benchmark index, down from just over 8 euros at the end of March. The decline extends a downward trend, after olive oil prices reached an unprecedented peak of 9.2 euros in January.

A dizzying rally for olive oil has cooled in recent weeks, in part due to beneficial rains in March and April and to an uptick in production estimates for Spain's olive harvest. But analysts said that dwindling olive oil reserves would likely keep markets on edge for sudden price spikes over the coming months.

"I think the biggest