Life imitating art: did a 1991 war novel predict how Philippine-China tensions would play out?

When Philippine and Chinese ships clash in the Spratly Islands, a Chinese admiral panics and launches a tactical nuclear missile at his opponents, obliterating them. Injured, he is brought ashore to Palawan where he is stunned to be met by Filipino communist insurgents who invite his force to help them take over the archipelago.

As the rebels stage a coup, Chinese soldiers shoot the Philippine president dead. Chinese planes and ships soon pour into Philippine cities and ports, forcing the government remnants to flee to Mindanao. Alarmed, the United States mobilises air and naval forces to prevent the entire region from going under.

Did a badly written tech thriller published in 1991 lay out how China might conquer the Philippines?

Sky Masters by US Air Force cheerleader Dale Brown is old and full of basic political mistakes, but sketches a scenario worth considering given current tensions. It would not be the first time fiction has anticipated history – several famous “faction” books predicted how World War II would play out in the Pacific.

In 1921, Japanese general Kojiro Sato wrote If Japan and America Fight, predicting that on a balance of both countries’ strengths and weaknesses, Japan’s fighting spirit would allow it to prevail in any clash with the US.

Ricardo Jose, a history professor at the University of the Philippines specialising in World War II, noted how two American authors wrote predictive fictional books.

“In the 1920s there was The Great Pacific War by Hector Bywater which discussed a war between Japan and the US … earlier Homer Lea wrote Valor of Ignorance … both had Japan starting the war by surprise attacks, invading the Philippines and so forth. Both were translated into Japanese … They may have influenced