Japan union group announces biggest wage hikes in 33 years, presaging shift at central bank

TOKYO: Japan's biggest companies agreed to raise wages by 5.28 per cent for 2024, the heftiest pay hikes in 33 years, the country's largest union group said on Friday (Mar 15), reinforcing views that the county's central bank will soon shift away from a decade-long stimulus programme.

The much-stronger-than-expected increase comes as the Bank of Japan looks close to ending eight years of negative interest rate policy. BOJ officials have stressed the timing of a pivot would depend on the outcome of this year's annual wage negotiations.

Policymakers hope that big pay rises will boost household spending and produce more durable growth in the broader economy, which narrowly avoided slipping into recession late last year.

Workers at major firms had asked for annual increases of 5.85 per cent, topping the 5 per cent mark for the first time in 30 years, according to trade union group Rengo.

«We estimate that this year's wage hikes could reach 5.3 per cent. If that is realised, real wages would turn positive in April-June 2024,» said Moe Nakahama, an economist at Itochu Economic Research Institute.

Rengo, which represents about 7 million workers, many at large companies, had set its eyes on hikes of more than 3 per cent in base pay — a key barometer of wage strength as it provides the basis for bonuses, severance and pensions.

Analysts had expected a rise of more than 4 per cent, after last year's 3.6 per cent, itself a three-decade high.

Rengo chief Tomoko Yoshino told a press conference that rising income inequality, inflation and a labour crunch were among the factors behind the big increase, adding part-time workers would see pay hikes of 6 per cent this fiscal year.

Yoshino said the country was at a critical stage in a