Japan’s ‘hydrogen society’ may do more harm than good

In June 2023, Japan revised its national hydrogen strategy that envisages a carbon-neutral “hydrogen society.” Ironically, fulfilling this strategy could increase global greenhouse gas emissions as most of the global supply chains that the Japanese government is creating to import hydrogen rely on fossil fuels.

Rather than a “hydrogen society,” Japan should aim to become a “prudent hydrogen society.” This means using hydrogen that has been produced in the cleanest way possible and only in sectors where it makes the most sense for the climate.

In December 2017, Japan became the first country to formulate a national hydrogen strategy. Since then, over 40 countries have followed suit, prompting Japan to revise its strategy. Tokyo’s updated strategy sets lofty targets.

The government will spend 15 trillion yen (US$101.4 billion) over 15 years with the goal of using 3 million tons of hydrogen annually by 2030, 12 million tons by 2040 and 20 million tons by 2050. This hydrogen will be used for a range of applications including power generation, mobility, residential and commercial fuel cells, industrial heating and chemicals.

To achieve these targets, the government is relying on a host of technological innovations whose outlook and feasibility are uncertain. Of the countries with hydrogen strategies, only a handful have set such precise targets. Among them, Japan’s are arguably the most ambitious. Tokyo will need to rely on skillful diplomacy if it is to obtain enough hydrogen to meet its targets.

The scale of Japan’s overseas hydrogen-related engagements is breathtaking – spanning at least 17 jurisdictions – with virtually all the projects having been brokered by the government.

In the Middle East, Japan has agreements with