Israel’s Hezbollah war threat hurts Biden more than Trump

Israel has announced that it is ready to go to war with Hezbollah – a move that is likely to undermine US President Joe Biden’s chances in the 2024 election even further.

Israel says that Hezbollah – the Lebanese political party and militant group – has pushed it close to an all-out war after the organization posted a nine-minute video of drone footage, showing military and civilian areas in several locations including the Israeli port of Haifa.

Israel has now publicly stated that it has approved military plans to move to a war footing against Hezbollah. Lebanon is on Israel’s border and the two countries have a long history of conflict and tension, which has been intensifying in recent months.

Israel’s escalation would be a significant blow to Biden ahead of the US presidential election. The Israel-Palestine conflict is already eroding Democrat support and Biden has repeatedly been accused from all sides of mishandling the situation. If further violence ramps up in the region, this will put even greater pressure on Biden, in ways he doesn’t need, just before the US goes to the ballot box.

Any further weakening of support for Biden is of concern to other national leaders who want to avoid a Trump presidency, and, potentially, its fallout for the Ukraine war. Biden has already had to navigate a complex situation of wanting to bring peace in the Middle East, while also respecting a longstanding expectation that the US will always stand by Israel.

Biden has faced political pressure to arm Israel and public condemnation of the way he has dealt with protests on university campuses. There has been further pressure on him after allegations that Israel was committing genocide were filed with the International Court of Justice.