Israel pressure pushing Iran over the nuclear edge

As Israel continues its assault on Hezbollah in Lebanon, Iran appears increasingly backed into a corner.

Israel’s efforts to weaken Iran’s proxy network have focused on a number of objectives: eliminating key Hezbollah leaders, destroying their weapons and other military sites, and targeting large numbers of fighters and sympathizers.

Hezbollah has undoubtedly been weakened over the past few weeks, which presents a dilemma for Iran. Could this sustained pressure on its main militant proxy group push Iran towards finally acquiring a nuclear weapon?

Iran’s deterrence strategy

The use of armed proxy networks as a deterrence strategy is a well-known approach employed by countries worldwide.

Iran has successfully adopted this strategy for decades, starting with Hezbollah in Lebanon and extending to Palestinian militant groups such as Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad in Gaza, various Iraqi militant factions, and Houthi rebels in Yemen.

This strategy has allowed Iran to project power in the region and counter pressure from the United States, Israel and their allies while deterring any direct military confrontation from its adversaries.

Both Iran and Israel have, until recently, appeared reluctant to engage in a full-scale war. Instead, they have adhered to certain rules of engagement in which they apply pressure on each other without escalating to all-out conflict. This is something neither side can afford.

Iran has long avoided direct confrontation with Israel, even when Israel has targeted its groups in Syria and assassinated several Iranian nuclear scientists over the past few decades.

Recently, however, this strategy has shifted. Feeling the impact of Israel’s prolonged assaults on its proxy network, Iran has responded