Is Ukraine headed toward a frozen conflict?

In recent months, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has been pushing hard for the United States and European countries to double down on military support for his country until he can achieve his “victory plan” against Russia.

In September, Ukraine undertook a risky incursion into Russian territory for the first time, capturing a chunk of land in the Kursk region. At the same time, Ukraine renewed requests to use longer-range Western weapons to strike targets deep into Russian territory.

Driving these actions seems to be Zelensky’s desire to position Ukraine as strongly as possible before the US presidential election. Whoever wins, the new president has the potential to drastically change the shape of the war.

What would a Harris presidency mean?

If Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris wins, this would likely mean more continuity in US foreign policy and US military support for Ukraine.

A game-changer for Ukraine would be gaining membership to NATO. While Zelensky has publicly ruled out ceding territory in exchange for Russia accepting its membership in the military bloc, this is at least a conceivable possibility.

After more than two and a half years of full-scale war, polling data from the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology shows a steady increase in the percentage of Ukrainians willing to make some territorial concessions for peace (now at 32%). However, just over half remain opposed to any territorial concessions.

In addition, Zelensky has said joining NATO is a top priority. However, Harris has stopped short of committing to supporting Ukraine’s membership in NATO, and Russian President Vladimir Putin has flatly refused to make this a part of negotiations.

Without NATO membership for Ukraine, a Harris