Iran's sudden strikes show just how perilous region has become

These are shape-shifting times in the Middle East.

This week, out of the blue, Iran suddenly attacked targets in "friendly" Pakistan, sparking an unprecedented tit-for-tat across their volatile border and a sharp spike in tension on a far edge of the grievous Israel-Gaza war.

Iran wanted a message to be heard loud and clear - at home, and a long way beyond.

"It has showcased its missile arsenal and its willingness to use it," says Vali Nasr, professor of international affairs and Middle East studies at Johns Hopkins University.

"It was a message also likely intended for Israel and the US in the midst of the Gaza war, especially with the potential escalation in Lebanon and Yemen."

Like most observers, he believes "for now Iran is not looking to escalate".

Ever since the Gaza war exploded after Hamas's murderous 7 October assault on southern Israel, it has been darkened by fears of an even more dangerous contagion. No-one, including Iran and its principal partner Hezbollah, as well as the United States, wants to see an even hotter conflagration.

Iran's war has been a web of shadow wars. It sits at the fulcrum of what it calls an "axis of resistance", the alliance of Tehran-backed groups dotting the region, from Hamas in Gaza, Hezbollah in Lebanon, to the Houthis in Yemen, and well-armed groups in both Iraq and Syria. Most have been designated as terrorist entities by some Western states.

Their military prowess is rooted in Iran's accelerated arming and training; each actor also has agendas and ambitions of its own.

Fires have been burning on all these fronts, and sometimes blazing, with efforts to douse the flames lest they provoke crippling Israeli and American reprisals.

When Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps