Iran juggling a multitude of bad choices

Israel’s own April Fool’s Day prank was to eliminate one of Iran’s top commanders in Syria, Mohammad Reza Zahedi, by striking a building near Tehran’s embassy in Damascus, almost flouting international law protecting the inviolability of diplomatic missions.

This act served as a clear warning: Iran must keep its allies and proxies in check, or risk Israel striking Iran without hesitation. It also served as a signal to Hezbollah militias in South Lebanon and the Houthis disrupting international trade in Yemen’s waters.

The attack occurred shortly after Turkey’s secular opposition won local elections, dealing a blow to President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. The result could potentially reshape Turkey’s political landscape, particularly since the opposition has traditionally been more pro-Israeli while Erdogan’s rule distanced Turkey from Israel.

Perhaps Israel’s challenge lies in the fact that it cannot afford to eradicate Hamas from Gaza only to have Hamas (or a similar group) resurface elsewhere, whether in the West Bank or within Islamic communities in the West, posing threats to Jews globally.

The pressing question now is: Will this situation lead to an escalation? If Iran responds, it risks direct involvement in a war it has sought to avoid so far, potentially leading to defeat. Alternatively, refraining from a response could invite a US attack against Iran for its active support of the Houthis. Tehran is facing tough choices.

In this context, Russian President Vladimir Putin may have an interest in extending the conflict to Iran. The Islamic terrorist attack in Moscow on March 22 has bewildered Russian security and tarnished Putin’s strongman image, casting a shadow on future developments in the war in Ukraine.

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