Indonesia election 2024: woman whose ‘words carry weight’ could determine winner of presidential polls

East Java, home to 31 million voters and a traditional electoral bellwether, voted for Jokowi, as the outgoing leader is popularly known, in the last two elections.

The three contenders for the top job – Defence Minister Prabowo Subianto and former regional governors Ganjar Pranowo and Anies Baswedan – had all sought her endorsement. After weeks of deliberations, on January 10, Khofifah threw her support behind Prabowo, the former military general, who leads in polls and rose through the powerful military under the patronage of the late dictator Suharto.

Khofifah’s backing of Prabowo may prove pivotal, amid local media reports that Ganjar and Baswedan may be trying to form an alliance to prevent an outright victory for Prabowo in the elections scheduled for February 14 and force a run-off in June. Prabowo, who polled at 46.7 per cent in a December survey by Indikator Politik Indonesia, must secure at least 50 per cent of the national ballots to succeed Widodo. If not, the top two candidates will battle in a run-off.

As a senior leader in Nahdlatul Ulama, the largest Islamic organisation in the world’s biggest Muslim nation, Khofifah’s influence extends to vote banks beyond East Java. Her support for Widodo was credited as among the reasons for his easy win in East Java for a second term in 2019, people close to both politicians said. Her approval rating in the vote-rich region is above 70 per cent.

Within Nahdlatul Ulama, she broke precedent after she was elected for a third term as chairperson of its women’s wing called Muslimat, which analysts estimate has over 30 million members. The almost unanimous support for Khofifah prompted the organisation to even amend its regulations – of only allowing an individual to serve as