Indonesia-China ties: will president-elect Prabowo confront Beijing or maintain Widodo’s economic deals?

Indeed, Prabowo promised as much when articulating his foreign policy on the campaign trail. During a November talk at the Centre for Strategic and International Studies think tank in Jakarta, Prabowo told the audience Indonesia would “maintain our independent foreign policy”, saying the country would not join any military or geopolitical bloc while preserving good relations with all of its neighbours.

Nur Rachmat Yuliantoro, head of the international relations department at Gadjah Mada University in Yogyakarta, said Prabowo may use Indonesia’s non-aligned position to benefit from both of the superpowers’ competing interests in the country.

“He sees China as a major actor that can be a sufficient counterweight to the power of another major actor, the United States,” Nur said. “Indonesia is likely to continue to take a position in the middle while trying to maximise the benefits of available security guarantees.”

01:48

US President Biden talks potential minerals partnership with Indonesian counterpart Widodo

Indonesia has the world’s largest nickel reserves, and in 2020, banned the export of nickel ore as part of a strategy to establish a competitive electric vehicle and battery supply chain. China has been a keen investor, pumping US$3.6 billion into Indonesia’s nickel sector in the first half of 2022 alone.

Chinese investment has also been pivotal under Indonesia’s infrastructure push led by Widodo, notably in projects such as Southeast Asia’s first high-speed rail launched by Jakarta in October.

Nur predicted that Prabowo would continue Widodo’s policies and maintain close ties with Beijing, “especially in the context of investment and infrastructure development”.

He argued that the relationship Indonesia had built up with