Indian voters reject Modi’s vision for one-party state in win for competitive democracy

CNN —

The opposition obituaries had been written. According to most polls, India’s election was a foregone conclusion.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s right-wing, Hindu-nationalist alliance was expected to secure a supermajority – and with it the power to enact radical change unopposed.

To Modi’s critics and opponents, India was on the fast track to becoming a de-facto one-party state.

But as Trump’s victory of 2016, Brexit and countless other upsets of recent years have shown, opinion polls and analysts can often get it spectacularly wrong.

Going into this election, Modi had set a goal of winning 400 seats in the lower house of parliament, or Lok Sabha. But as results began to trickle in Tuesday night, it quickly became clear his ruling Bharatiya Janata Party wouldn’t even have enough to form a simple majority.

India's Prime Minister Narendra Modi flashes victory sign at the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) headquarters to celebrate the party's win in country's general election, in New Delhi on June 4, 2024

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Instead, for the first time since coming to power a decade ago, Modi will be reliant on longstanding local coalition partners to keep him in government.

In what opposition parties have declared as a victory for pluralism, voters in the world’s largest democracy partially rejected Modi’s populist vision for a Hindu-first nation, reducing the BJP’s share of the vote by 63 seats – bringing its total down to 240, far below the 272 required for a parliamentary majority.

Opposition parties meanwhile won 235 seats, while BJP’s coalition partners secured 52 seats.

Tuesday’s result is a humbling moment for a leader