India’s BJP defies predictions with Haryana win, boosting prospects ahead of key polls

Electoral surveys had unanimously predicted a resounding defeat for the BJP in Haryana, with India’s main opposition Congress Party expected to trounce the ruling party in the northern state. Against all forecasts, the BJP secured a third consecutive term by winning 48 seats – its biggest win ever in the state – compared to the Congress party’s 37 seats, based on official results released on Tuesday.

The unexpected victory comes at a crucial time for Modi’s BJP, which lost its outright majority in parliamentary polls earlier this year. Analysts say the win is likely to invigorate the party as it heads into a series of crucial state elections, including in the strategically important western state of Maharashtra and the eastern state of Jharkhand before the end of the year. Elections are also due to be held in Delhi and Bihar next year.

“The results in Haryana mean that the BJP has got oxygen. If they had lost the mandate in Haryana, then going into Maharashtra would have been difficult for them. Now, Maharashtra is wide open,” said Yashwant Deshmukh, an independent political commentator.

Once a stronghold for the BJP and its regional ally Shiv Sena, Maharashtra’s political landscape has become challenging following splits within Shiv Sena and another influential regional party, the Nationalist Congress Party, in recent years.