India fertility fall puts policymakers on clock to avoid Japan-like strain

NEW DELHI -- Demographic pressures hitting aging Asian economies like China and Japan are also looming on the horizon for India, new research highlights, putting the world's most populous country in a race against time to mitigate the effects.

India's total fertility rate, which measures the average number of births per woman, plummeted from nearly 6.2 in 1950 to just under 2 in 2021, and is projected to fall further to 1.29 by 2050 and 1.04 by 2100, according to a new global study published last week in The Lancet journal. A fertility rate of 2.1 is generally considered replacement level, and the shift could have major ramifications as the working population shrinks while older age groups expand.