India election: will lower voter turnout make Modi ‘jittery’ and dent BJP’s chances of winning a majority?

India’s ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has banked on the immense popularity of Prime Minister Narendra Modi to ensure it wins a majority in parliament in this year’s general election, but analysts say a drop in voter turnout could make the party “jittery” about achieving that goal.

Voter turnout in phase two on Friday was about 65 per cent, compared to 69 per cent five years ago. Ballots were cast in a number of the BJP stronghold states, including parts of Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Uttar Pradesh.

The turnout in the first phase was also about 65 per cent, compared to 69 per cent in the 2019 election, showing a clear pattern of lower voter enthusiasm in the initial phase, according to preliminary estimates.

“There is a complete absence of an overarching national narrative. It has reasons to make the incumbent or the front runner a bit jittery,” said Nilanjan Mukhopadhyay, an author and independent political analyst. “Normally, a front runner can sweep up everything if there is a single issue.”

But Mukhopadhyay said the trend so far suggested that the ongoing election was being fought on an aggregation of issues across various constituencies in which the quality of the local leadership could make a difference to the final outcome.

In the 2019 election, voters solidly lined up for the BJP following the government’s decision to conduct an air force strike in Balakot, Pakistan, in retaliation for a militant attack on an Indian security camp in India-administered Kashmir, Mukhopadhyay said.

That ensured Modi’s return to power for a second time following his 2014 election victory, when he won on the crest of voter anger against the Congress party-led United Progressive Alliance for alleged corruption and women’s safety