India and Pakistan fuel Central Asian arms race with military sales to Armenia, Azerbaijan

While a limited peace agreement between the governments in Yerevan and Baku “is still likely, unresolved territorial and political disputes maintain a high risk of unilateral Azeri military actions”, said Tinatin Japaridze, a Eurasia analyst at the New York-based Eurasia Group political risk consultancy.

Any peace deal lacking clarity on border issues would “do little to deter” Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev from escalating military actions, she said, citing the potential forced opening of the Zangezur corridor through Armenia’s Syunik region that would grant Azerbaijan vital access to its Nakhchivan exclave.

Last month, Beijing formally joined the Middle Corridor project, committing to develop multimodal connectivity through its state-owned China Railway Container Transport Corporation.