In Vietnam’s ‘game of thrones’, is China the only constant?

Though police general To Lam, who was sworn in as president on May 22, previously sought Beijing’s advice on shoring up domestic security, foreign-policy experts believe Hanoi will stay the course in its dealings with its powerful northern neighbour.

Huynh Tam Sang, an international-relations lecturer at Vietnam’s University of Social Sciences and Humanities, said it was not in Hanoi’s best interests to alter its foreign-policy trajectory.

Evoking the strong roots, stout trunk and flexible branches of the bamboo plant, the term describes Vietnam’s nuanced strategy to navigate geopolitics: preserving its independence and benefiting from multiple international partnerships without becoming beholden to any one power.

Vietnam’s newly-elected president visited China in September last year, during which his Ministry of Public Security picked up “a lot of tactics” – most notably in counterterrorism and anti-riot measures – from its Chinese counterpart, according to Huynh. Monitoring dissent and the surveillance of activists are two of the ministry’s main roles.

Huynh said Lam had also asked for “both theoretical and practical advice” from China’s security chiefs on how to keep Vietnam’s Communist Party “in complete control over authority and leadership” back in January.

“Chinese officials know they can rely on Lam because of his symbiotic comradeship with General Secretary Nguyen Phu Trong, who has attempted to maintain close ties with Chinese President Xi Jinping.” he said.

Vietnam’s leadership has “always viewed the world through a similar lens as China’s”, said Zachary Abuza, a professor of security strategy at the National War College in Washington.

“They fear ‘colour revolutions’, their policy priority is always regime survival,