In Japan, energy security fears put nuclear back in favour for 2040 plan

TOKYO — Japan is set to push for more nuclear power in an energy policy update due next year, seeking stable electricity supply in face of growing demand and heightening geopolitical risks, but is likely to struggle to meet its targets, industry experts say.

The country slashed reliance on nuclear power after the Fukushima disaster in 2011 and increased use of fossil fuels to generate 70 per cent of its electricity, even as it set out to cut carbon emissions to net zero by 2050.

But having faced coal and gas price spikes and supply disruptions in 2022 due to Russia's war on Ukraine, the government wants to lock in greater use of nuclear energy, along with wind and solar power, to secure stable energy supply.

"The emphasis has moved away from carbon emissions to energy security. Energy security has always been important for Japan, but even more so now because there were so many challenges with the lack of liquefied natural gas, expensive LNG, lack of supply," said Alex Whitworth, vice president at consultants Wood Mackenzie.

Any shift to boost nuclear power by the world's second-biggest importer of LNG and a major buyer of thermal coal will hit exporters of those fossil fuels, including Australia, Qatar, the US and Indonesia.

Discussions on Japan's energy policy, which is revised every three years, began last month. This is the first revision since Prime Minister Fumio Kishida shifted the country's stance to favour nuclear power in 2022.　

"The overwhelming majority of the members of the panel that debates the policy are pro-nuclear, and the new policy may include building new reactors," said Takeo Kikkawa, president of International University of Japan.

It is unclear how the 2030 energy mix target of 20 per cent-22 per