If Biden stands down before the election

When Joe Biden took the oath of office in January 2021, many expected him to be the “placeholder president.” His mandate: heal the country’s wounds after four turbulent years of Donald Trump. Don’t try to be a transformative figure. Then hand the reins to a capable successor.

Fast forward to 2024 and there’s room for debate about the merits (and demerits) of Biden’s first-term legacy. But it’s Biden’s decision to run for re-election that’s become the major flashpoint for Democrats.

Polling collated by US political website FiveThirtyEight shows Biden with a dismal sub-40% approval rating. Former president Trump, the “inevitable” Republican nominee who has all punched his ticket to the general election with primary victories in Iowa and New Hampshire, has jumped into the lead in a head-to-head match against Biden in almost every swing state.

Many allies privately, and publicly, worry that Biden is at risk not only of overstaying his welcome, but of passing the baton to his twice-impeached rival that Biden himself pillories as an existential threat to democracy.

Is it too late for Biden to bow out in 2024? Technically, no. Biden could, for any reason, declare that he’s no longer seeking a second term.

If he did it before March, there would still be (some) time for other Democrats to get their name on many primary ballots, although deadlines for more than 30 states (amounting to roughly two-thirds of delegates) have already passed.

If it didn’t happen by then, his successor would be determined in a high-stakes fracas at the party’s convention scheduled for late August. Unless the Democrat party changed the rules, delegates pledged to Biden would enter the convention “uncommitted,” and so would lobby, and ultimately vote, on