How Trump could push Japan, S Korea to go nuclear

Will a Donald Trump return to the White House lead to a nuclear arms race in Northeast Asia, beginning in South Korea and leading to Japan and even possibly to Taiwan? Of all the consequences of a Trump victory, this is the one that is least discussed openly in Tokyo. But behind closed doors, there is serious talk about this dark future.

The Japanese pronunciation of the former president’s surname is Toranpu. I recently had an extended stay in Japan, during which the number one topic raised in my conversations with Japanese policymakers was moshi-tora – “What if Trump?” – the catchphrase for pondering Japan’s fate if Trump returns to the White House.

Many dangers loomed in the minds of Japan’s foreign policy elite, including:

• a de facto surrender to Russia in the Ukraine war, emboldening China and even North Korea;
• imposition of a 60% tariff on all Chinese goods, or even broader tariffs targeting Japan and Europe;
• demands that Japan, and other allies, pay massive amounts to the US to keep American forces stationed abroad.

All of those “America First” moves are perfectly plausible, even likely, given Trump’s past actions and current proclamations. Still, Japanese policymakers claimed to be confident that they could somehow manage Trump, following the model of Shinzo Abe – flatter him, pay him off and cultivate ties with his advisors.

“As during the first Trump presidency, if we have a good understanding in advance with the defense and national security team without Trump, that will help,” a former senior Japanese foreign ministry official told me.

The Japanese government will move quickly to press the US on the importance of American bases in Japan, believing that Trump’s focus on a confrontation with China will depend in