Hamas leader’s killing could trigger Iran-Israel war

Palestinian militant group Hamas says its top political leader, Ismail Haniyeh, has been killed in his home in Tehran. It blames Israel for the attack, saying it was “a Zionist airstrike on his residence in Tehran after he participated in the inauguration of Iran’s new president.”

Iran has not yet given any details on how Haniyeh was killed, but says it is under investigation.

With the war in Gaza showing no sign of abating and the whole Middle East on a knife’s edge, the killing raises questions about whether it may spark a wider regional war.

Who is Ismail Haniyeh?

Haniyeh is the most senior political leader of Hamas, based in Doha, Qatar. He was essentially the Hamas leader for the ceasefire negotiations with Israel in the Gaza war, brokered by the United States, Egypt and Qatar. These negotiations will obviously now be on hold.

While Israel has not yet claimed responsibility for his death – and this is unlikely, given it does not typically claim responsibility for covert actions – Haniyeh has long been on its list of targets.

What is surprising, though, is where and how it was done. Haniyeh was in Tehran to attend the swearing-in ceremony of Iran’s new president, Masoud Pezeshkian. Details of exactly what happened are still sketchy, but it appears Haniyeh was killed along with one of his bodyguards by an explosion in his building. We do not yet know if the explosion was from a remotely controlled bomb or a missile attack.

Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) is investigating the killing.

What does this mean for a wider regional war?

There are two important issues that will be under close scrutiny in the coming hours and days.

The first is that assuming it was Israel that was responsible for Haniyeh’s