Friday Briefing: Will North Korea Attack?

North Korea’s leader, Kim Jong-un, could take some form of lethal military action against South Korea in the coming months after having shifted his policy to one of open hostility, U.S. officials say.

The officials have assessed that Kim’s recent declarations have been more aggressive than previous statements and should be taken seriously, but U.S. agencies have not detected concrete signs that North Korea is gearing up for combat or a major war.

Kim could carry out strikes in a way he thinks would avoid rapid escalation, U.S. officials said, such as when the North shelled a South Korean island in 2010. The two sides exchanged artillery fire, resulting in the reported deaths of troops on both sides and of civilians in the South, but both militaries soon stopped.

The Biden administration has been trying since 2021 to persuade North Korea to engage in diplomacy. But, one former intelligence analyst said, Kim felt betrayed and humiliated by Donald Trump during the failed diplomacy of 2019.