Fret not Taiwan, Marcos Jr has your back

MANILA – Soon after Lai Ching-te won Taiwan’s January 13 presidential election, Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr made an unprecedented congratulatory call to the independence-leaning new leader who’s firmly in Beijing’s crosshairs.

According to official reports of the conversation, Marcos Jr congratulated Lai as “Taiwan’s next president” while looking forward to “close collaboration, strengthening mutual interests and fostering peace and ensuring prosperity for our peoples.”

The Philippine Department of Foreign Affairs was quick to clarify that Manila still abides by the “One China” policy. The Malacanang Palace followed suit by playing down Marcos Jr’s felicitations.

Beijing fired back nonetheless by summoning the Philippines’ top envoy in Beijing while warning Manila “not to play with fire” amid festering maritime disputes in the nearby South China Sea and China’s calls to “reunify” Taiwan with the mainland, by force if necessary.

Far from a diplomatic faux pas, however, the Filipino president’s statement was a well-calculated move. For Marcos Jr, as a nearby neighbor of Taiwan and US mutual defense treaty ally, the Philippines must participate in any collective effort to deter a Chinese invasion of the self-ruling island.

How the Philippine leader calibrates its cooperation with the US and its like-minded allies vis-à-vis Taiwan could make the difference between war and peace in the months and years ahead.

That includes regarding the amount and terms of access Manila allows the US to its northernmost military bases that abut on Taiwan’s southern shores.

It’s still unclear how China will respond to Lai’s democratic victory. Beijing clearly favored the Kuomintang’s Hou Yu-in, who finished second in the vote