Fed close to pulling off the elusive economic soft landing in 2024 after great September jobs report

September's outsized payrolls boost takes the U.S. economy out of the shadows of recession and gives the Federal Reserve a fairly open glide path to a soft landing.

If that sounds like a Goldilocks scenario, it's probably not far from it, even with the lingering inflation concerns that are straining consumers' wallets.

A gravity-defying jobs market, at least a slowing pace of price increases and declining interest rates puts the macro picture in a pretty good place right now — a critical time from a policy and political standpoint.

"We've been expecting a soft landing. This just gives us more confidence that it seems to remain in place," Beth Ann Bovino, chief economist at U.S. Bank, said after Friday's nonfarm payrolls report. "It also increases the possibility of a no-landing as well, meaning even stronger economic data for 2025 than we currently expect."

The jobs count certainly was better than virtually anyone figured, with companies and the government combining to boost payrolls by 254,000, blowing away the Dow Jones consensus for 150,000. It was a big step up even from August's upwardly revised numbers and reversed a trend that started in April of decelerating job numbers and rising concern for a broader slowdown — or worse.

Beyond that, it virtually eliminated any chance that the Federal Reserve would be repeating its half percentage point interest rate cut from September anytime soon.

In fact, futures markets reversed positioning after the report, pricing in a near-certain probability of just a quarter-point move at the November Fed meeting, followed by another quarter point in December, according to the CME Group's FedWatch gauge. Previously, markets had been looking for a half-point in December followed by the