Egypt ill-prepared for coming wave of Rafah refugees

Satellite imagery and video footage have emerged suggesting that Egypt is building what appears to be a large, concrete-walled enclosure which observers believe will be used to manage a major influx of Palestinian refugees flooding out of Gaza via the Rafah crossing on its eastern border.

As Israel’s planned military assault on the city of Rafah edges ever closer, it presents the Egyptian president, Abdel Fattah al-Sisi, with a potentially serious problem. The displacement into his country of potentially hundreds of thousands of Palestinians from the afflicted enclave could seriously destabilize what is an extremely fragile political environment.

For Egyptians, the potential for spillover of the Gazan conflict is a major concern. Plagued with Islamist groups mounting regular attacks on Egyptian military installments in the Sinai Peninsula since 2013, the last thing Sisi needs are enormous numbers of displaced and traumatized refugees.

Yet, with the Palestinian death toll now approaching 30,000 – approximately 70% of whom are reported to be women and children – and Israel planning on invading Rafah, where upwards of a million Palestinians are huddled, the prospect of refugees spilling into the Sinai looks more and more likely.

Sisi has roundly condemned Israel’s military assault on Gaza, and is fully aware of the humanitarian catastrophe unfolding just across the border. But two key issues are deterring him from making any hasty altruistic decisions in support of desperate Gazans fleeing hostilities.

For a start, Egypt is in no position to absorb large numbers of Palestinian refugees. Besides dealing with a decade-long insurgency in the very border areas that would have to host the refugees, the strong presence of