Economic boost from Taylor Swift's Eras Tour could be overstated, Nomura warns

The devil's in the details, but local economies have a friend in Taylor Swift.

The American pop star has spent nearly a year crossing the U.S. and the globe with her high-flying Eras Tour. The economic effect of the "Karma" singer's show has caught the attention of everyone from the Federal Reserve to Wall Street.

Her tour undoubtedly helped the local economies she visited, according to a new report out from Japanese investment bank Nomura. But the firm questions how much of an imprint it made on national data.

"Her boost to consumption has certainly enchanted US economic analysts, but we believe the total macroeconomic effect is probably overstated," Nomura global economist Si Ying Toh wrote to clients last week.

Between the first and third quarter of 2023, Swift's venture alone lifted nominal U.S. retail sales by 0.03%, and real gross domestic product, a measure of economic output, by 0.02%, Nomura estimates show.

For all of 2023, the 14-time Grammy winner's tour accounted for 0.5% of nominal consumption growth, according to the firm's calculations.

Though those data points can be considered marginal, Toh said the economic boost — which some have dubbed the "Swift-lift" — is "undeniable" for the 20 cities U.S. she visited.

Stops on The Eras Tour saw a bump of 2.1 percentage points to lodging inflation during the month of Swift's visit, according to STR data cited by Toh. Data from hotel booking platform Trivago shows a similar rise, she added.

Looking at Chicago specifically, Toh estimated that lodging prices rose 3.1 percentage points due to Swift's three shows there. The city, which is the third-most populated in the U.S., saw a bump of 8.1 percentage points in occupancy and a 59% increase in hotel revenue per available room