Did China security concerns help Japan’s ruling LDP score surprise win in Okinawa election?

Okinawa Governor Denny Tamaki had campaigned on a platform of halting the enlargement of a US base in the far northeast of the prefecture to take over the functions of Futenma Air Base in central Okinawa and to reduce the overall US military presence from the nearly 30,000 service personnel at present.

Several thousand of those US troops, along with their dependents, are due to be relocated to Guam before the end of this year, but Tamaki and many Okinawans feel that their islands shoulder a disproportionate burden and that the number of US troops and bases should be more equitably shared throughout the rest of Japan.

“The [election] result was quite puzzling, as the LDP has done terribly in elections in Okinawa in recent years because of the issue of US military bases in the prefecture,” said Ben Ascione, an assistant professor of international relations at Tokyo’s Waseda University.

A public opinion survey conducted last year found that some 70 per cent of Okinawans believe the number of US military bases in the prefecture is “unfair”.

Beijing has in recent years ramped up demands against the self-ruled island and conducted large-scale military exercises in nearby waters. In drills last year, Chinese missiles splashed down within Japanese waters off Yonaguni Island.

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“The international security environment has been more tense recently, with China, Russia and North Korea reviving their Cold War-type of cooperation,” Ascione said.

“Maybe [Okinawan voters] were more ambiguous and felt a need for a strong deterrent power vis-à-vis China, even though they still feel that it is unfair that so many US bases are concentrated in Okinawa.”

Just 45 per