‘Credibility at stake’: Why did Iran strike inside Pakistan amid Gaza war?

Tehran’s attacks on Pakistani, Iraqi and Syrian territory have only one thing in common, say analysts: a show of strength at a time Iran feels especially threatened.

In just two days this week, Iran launched missiles – first into Iraq’s semi-autonomous Kurdish region and Syria, and then into Pakistan – in attacks that could further inflame tensions in a region on edge.

Monday’s attacks in Syria were against alleged ISIL (ISIS) targets. In Erbil, Iraq, Tehran claimed it hit a Mossad facility, also on Monday. At least four people were killed, according to Kurdish authorities.

Then on Tuesday, Iran fired missiles into Pakistan’s Balochistan province. Their target was the separatist group Jaish al-Adl but at least two children were killed. Pakistan launched retaliatory attacks on Thursday morning, killing at least nine people in Iran’s Sistan-Baluchestan province, just across the border.

These rapid attacks by Iran on three different neighbours have sparked concerns of a regional escalation and triggered questions over the timings of Tehran’s decision to launch cross-border strikes, given Israel’s continuing war on Gaza.

On the surface, the alleged targets of Iranian attacks in Syria, Iraq and Pakistan appear to have little in common. But there’s a common thread tying Tehran’s actions – even though the strike on Pakistan may have been a reckless and ill-considered gamble – say analysts.

“It has to do, I think, with Iran’s overall threat perception in the region rising. And at the same time, feeling the need – as a result of domestic and external pressure – to respond,” said Hamidreza Azizi, a visiting fellow at SWP Berlin.

In late December, Israel killed Sayyed Razi Mousavi, a top Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps