Commentary: Philippines’ fertility decline will be the global economy’s problem

SINGAPORE: The next big demographic jolt is coming in a country whose human capital keeps essential portions of the global economy afloat. Its impact will be felt everywhere from London hospital wards and Los Angeles wharves to dinner tables across the Middle East.  

While still a relatively young nation, the Philippines is determined to reduce its birth rate, and sees much smaller families as a route to the prosperity enjoyed elsewhere. It wants a place in the pantheon of Asian success stories alongside nations like Singapore and Malaysia.

The archipelago of 115 million people has already made meaningful progress, thanks in part to the reduced sway of the Roman Catholic Church and the ensuing easing of restrictions on contraception.

Worries about a baby drought and decades-later silver tsunami of too many old people are for societies that have already grown rich. They are tomorrow’s problems. 

Family planning volunteer Remy Cabello embodies the changes underway – she raised two children but has a dozen siblings. “People are becoming more knowledgeable,” Cabello told me during her rounds in one of Manila’s poorest neighbourhoods. With smaller families, “they can budget their money, they can give a better education to their kids, give sufficient financial support and nutrition. They are taking care not just of their kids, but of their lives.”

What matters for Manila is capitalising on the momentum generated by sharp declines in fertility and using the coming decade or two to invest in education, technology and infrastructure. Consistent and pronounced reductions in the size of families were key characteristics of the rapid economic take-off enjoyed by South Korea, Singapore, Taiwan, Hong Kong and mainland China.

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