Climate change threat is more than a storm in Vietnam’s coffee cup

Trouble is brewing for drinkers of coffee, one of the world’s most traded commodities, as climate change affects farmers, reshaping production patterns.

Coffee plays a sizeable role in Vietnam’s economy, bringing in over 10 per cent of its revenues from agricultural exports and 3 per cent of its gross domestic product. Last year, Vietnam exported 1.61 million tonnes of coffee, earning a record high of US$4.18 billion.

While Europe dominates the more lucrative market for processed coffee (such as instant coffee), the low value-added market for unprocessed coffee (such as raw beans) is dependent on poorer countries – along with Vietnam, Brazil, Colombia, Indonesia and Ethiopia are responsible for 70 per cent of this sector.

For these Global South growers, coffee exports are an important source of revenue.

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By 2040, the world may face a robusta coffee shortage of up to 35 million (60kg) bags due in part to climate change and consumption trends, according to the NGO World Coffee Research. By 2050, half the land suitable for growing arabica coffee will no longer support the crop, putting further pressure on coffee production and prices.

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In response, the Colombian government established a central coffee authority to help coffee farmers, and gave them a new rust-resistant coffee variety to replant with. Consequently, its coffee output recovered from a devastated 8.5 million bags in 2008 to 14.5 million bags in 2018.

A similar situation occurred across Central America between 2011 and 2013 when coffee leaf rust spread across Honduras, Costa Rica, Nicaragua, El Salvador and Guatemala, resulting