Chinese Leader Gives Early Estimate of Economic Growth

China’s second-highest leader said Tuesday that his country’s economy had grown “around 5.2 percent” last year, providing an unusual early glimpse of important economic data a day before its official release.

Speaking at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, Premier Li Qiang, the second-highest official in China after Xi Jinping, said that China had beat its target last year of economic growth of about 5 percent. He also insisted that China had managed to expand the economy without using risky or short-term measures, like large spending or credit programs.

“In the course of economic development, we have held to avoiding major stimulus, and have not sought short-term growth at the price of accumulating long-term risks,” he said.

Mr. Li’s comments were consistent with publicly available estimates of economic growth for last year. China will announce the official number in Beijing on Wednesday.

Caixin, a Chinese news organization, said a survey of economists last week concluded that the economy probably grew 5.3 percent.

The timing of official economic reports has been a sensitive subject in China ever since the government delayed the release of economic growth information by a week in October 2022. The extra time allowed the Communist Party to finish an important national congress before lackluster statistics were distributed to the public.

Stephen Roach, a Yale economist and former chairman of Morgan Stanley Asia, said that Mr. Li’s mention of an estimate of economic growth was a far less serious digression from any global norms than the 2022 delay. “There are enough questions about the credibility of China’s numbers that I don’t think this is a serious breach of our confidence in those numbers,” he said.

As