Chinese entropy and American stumbles

In 2001, the US was set on dealing with the rising power of China, but China was saved by the events of 9/11. The threat of Muslim terrorism diverted American attention from China for almost two decades. It was very costly to America.

The US’s plan to take control of Afghanistan (the Eurasian Heartland) and Iraq (the core of the Middle East) could have changed everything for the world and China.

If the US had taken effective charge of these two places, it would have had a hold over both continental land routes and oil production costs.

Iraqi oil, some of the cheapest to extract worldwide, thus acts as a price setter for this crucial commodity. If the US had achieved that, China might have been forced to bend toward America and adopt sweeping political and economic reforms. Such a turn by China might also have influenced Russia.

However, the failure to achieve these aims due to poor implementation, unrealistic goals and the ensuing 2008 financial crisis proved to China, and possibly also to Russia that America was declining and could not perform the post-WWII European and Asian feats – effectively rebuilding countries from the ashes. This assessment set China, and possibly also Russia, on a different path, ignoring and challenging the US-led world.

The new Chinese path refocused American attention on Beijing, which, in the meantime, had become confident about its bright destiny.

Things turned around with Covid and the invasion of Ukraine. The US produced an effective vaccine that saved the world from the epidemic and correctly predicted Russia’s intentions and Ukraine’s determination to resist. These events shook Beijing’s confidence. At the same time, its growth model showed deep fissures.

The real estate sector, the