China stock rout shows investors want way more reform

The startling divergence between China’s 5.2% growth and cratering stock market is putting Asia’s biggest economy in global headlines for all the wrong reasons.

Given the chaos of 2023 — a massive property crisis, record youth unemployment, trade headwinds from Washington and deflationary pressures — China’s ability to top 5% growth year on year is impressive indeed. But the stock market continues to stumble, a rout that shows few signs of slowing.

So how bad could things get? In the first two weeks of 2024, global funds sold more than US$1.1 billion of mainland stocks. China’s CSI 300 index this week fell to its lowest levels since 2019, losing more than 25% over the last year. That’s the mirror image of the 24% rally in the S&P 500 over the same period.

China’s stock troubles have many causes. The most recent: disappointment that the People’s Bank of China didn’t loosen monetary rates this week. It left rates unchanged on its seven-day reverse repo and medium-term lending facility. Markets had been expecting cuts.

“The PBOC’s decision to hold rates is negative for market sentiment and economic growth, and suggests policymakers are not trying very hard to present a coordinated, strongly pro-growth message at the start of the year,” says Wei He, analyst at Gavekal Dragonomics.

Recent data show that China entered 2024 with a series of headaches undermining domestic demand and confidence. Property-related spending is sliding and home prices are the weakest since 2015.

Consumer prices have dropped for three consecutive months, suggesting the worst deflationary pressures since the 1997-98 Asian financial crisis.

Then there are the data trends that fuel “Japanification” chatter. That includes news that the historic decline