China's steel exports expected to falter in 2025 as pain from tariffs spread

China's steel exports will soon hit an eight-year high, before sweeping tariffs sink in and drag down the industry in 2025, industry watchers said.

As the biggest exporter of steel, China accounts for about 55% of the world's steel production. The country's steel exports have been surging this year and are expected to smash through the 100 million metric ton mark, matching levels last seen in 2016.

Strategists at Macquarie Group predicted that China's steel exports will reach 109 million tons this year, before declining to 96 million tons in 2025. Trade tariffs could further curb China's steel exports, "albeit this may require a while to play out."

Their predictions were echoed by analysts interviewed by Citigroup. China's steel shipment is "skewed to the downside" from next year and onwards due to anti-dumping measures, Ren Zhuqian, an analyst from steel consultancy Mysteel, said in a Citigroup note this month.

Foreign markets have been particularly crucial amid a domestic supply glut, as China's economy grapples with a prolonged property crisis and slowdown in manufacturing activities.

In September, China's steel exports jumped 26% from a year ago to 10.2 million tons, surpassing the 10 million ton a month benchmark that was last hit in June 2016. In the first nine months of the year, exports rose 21.2% year on year to 80.7 million tons, according to the customs data last week.

After hitting a record high of 112 million tons in 2015,the country's steel exports had been on a multi-year slide before it started improving in 2020.

Steel export growth has accelerated ever since, propelled by a lack of domestic demand, even as overall export growth in China slowed sharply in September on the back of a series of disappointing data