China’s growing appetite for a space fight with US

A new RAND report emphasizes China’s rising risk tolerance and growing strategic maneuvers in space, an aggressive push forged to challenge US dominance in the domain.

The RAND report examines open-source Chinese defense literature, providing a comprehensive overview of People’s Liberation Army (PLA) perspectives on space-based escalation over the past two decades.

It asserts that China’s leaders view the US as a dominant but declining power and anticipate aggressive future tactics, including the growing militarization of space.

The report says the PLA’s strategy encompasses both deterrence and coercion, a tactical mix that aims to force adversaries to bend to its political objectives or face a devastating space-based war.

The report outlines the PLA’s evolving views on space-based escalation. These views reflect a growing desire to assertively shape the fast-evolving strategic environment. Initially, the PLA’s strategic thinking was mainly theoretical, focusing on conflict prevention.

RAND mentions that the PLA changed its approach to space operations in 2013, focusing on military competition and controlled escalation to achieve political objectives.

It outlines a four-step escalation ladder involving demonstrating space strength, space military exercises, disposition of space forces and space strikes. The strategy aims to coerce opponents into submission while avoiding full-scale conflict.

The report says the shift toward higher risk tolerance in space is significantly influenced by the PLA’s view of the US as a declining power likely to resort to militarization. It also claims that Chinese President Xi Jinping’s influence has shaped the PLA’s increasing risk tolerance in space.

RAND recommends that US officials