China’s exports to Central Asia are booming

Central Asia is becoming one of Eurasia’s main trade and transit hubs, with Kazakhstan in the forefront.

Sino-Central Asian trade turnover stood atUS$89.4 billion at the end of 2023, a 27% increase over the 2022 level of US$70.2 billion, according to China’s Customs Agency. Of that total, US$61.4 billion represented Chinese exports to the region.

Trade between China and Kazakhstan alone clocked in at a whopping US$41 billion – or 46% of China’s total trade turnover with all of Central Asia. That represents a 32% increase over its 2022 turnover at year’s end.

In January and February of this year, China’s exports to all the countries in the arc from Türkiye to Kazakhstan increased 31% compared with the first two months of 2022. China’s trade with Azerbaijan jumped 83% over the same period – nearly double the percentage increase in trade with any other country in the region.

China’s total trade with the Global South, which includes Central Asia, made up for sharp declines in trade in developed countries, including with the United States, the European Union and Japan, as David Goldman recently showed in Asia Times.

What explains the massive rise in Chinese exports to Central Asia and the Caucasus? This story deserves some attention considering, as Goldman said, “global supply chains and their financing” are shifting.

Diplomacy and trade

For well over two decades now, Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, and Kyrgyzstan and, more recently Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan, have engaged in smart bilateral and multilateral diplomacy, which includes promoting trade across Eurasia. To increase regional trade turnover, these states often work in concert to leverage their collective strength; when necessary, they go it alone but generally manage